How long can he last?

Now may not be the most auspicious time for someone to assume leadership of this sorely divided country. Mr Abhisit has taken the national helm at a time of deep-seated anomalies. ANALYSIS

The People Power party's demise is the Democrat party's gain, and it is now Abhisit Vejjajiva's turn to salvage the country from near social and economic ruin. The inevitable, therefore, has to be asked: how long can he last?

The path that lies before the youngest politician to steer the ship of state is strewn with barbs and hidden traps.

Monday was the day most Democrat faithful had been waiting a long time for. With the votes of disaffected former foes falling into his hands, Mr Abhisit can now lead the new government, but it's under the immense weight of expectations. For now may not be the most auspicious time for someone to assume leadership of a sorely divided country. Mr Abhisit has taken the national helm at a time of deep-seated anomalies.

How long Mr Abhisit survives hinges primarily on at least two fundamentally vital questions: how he can keep the coalition partners on a leash through a satisfactory distribution of political interests, and how he plans to factor in the People's Alliance for Democracy.

The two issues are critical to the Abhisit administration. Coalition stability defines the pressure within while the PAD element defines extra-parliamentary forces. Any slip and the new government could crumble faster than it can reshuffle cabinet ministers, such are the political time-bombs waiting for Mr Abhisit.

The coalition allies, which include the Friends of Newin camp credited with swinging power over to the Democrats, will want to maximise their bargaining muscle for cabinet seats. An allocation of posts perceived to be unfair could spell disintegration of the ranks.

Similarly, the treatment of the PAD issue requires a delicate hand. The movement's leaders have lined up before them a slew of criminal and civil charges for directing the prolonged anti-Thaksin activities which were seen as breaking the law. If the new government comes down too hard on the PAD, it could lose a friend who, over the course of the 11 months the Democrats were in opposition, had fought the "common enemy" - the governments they regarded as being in Thaksin's shadow. But if it is seen as being soft on the PAD, it is bound to trigger an uproar from the legion of red-shirted, anti-Abhisit hardliners.

At 44, the 27th prime minister may not have top bureaucratic or prominent business titles to his name, having entered politics when he was only 28, as did many of his predecessors. However, the Oxford-educated politician possesses a decent family background and his reputation is untainted by corruption. He has contested, and won, seven consecutive general elections.

Mr Abhisit has been the darling of many middle and upper-class voters and sees eye-to-eye with the media, both national and foreign, as well as the military. His relations with the PAD are generally positive and he has harnessed the solid political support base of the Democrats, the country's oldest party. Mr Abhisit is the fourth Democrat leader to reach the zenith of national administration.

However, Mr Abhisit is regarded as being out of touch with the grass-roots majority who decide who governs the country at the polls. He needs to woo this segment of voters in the North and Northeast where the Democrats have traditionally been in the shadows if his party is to have any chance of improving its standing in the next election.

Some observers argue the Democrats owe their elevation in part to the PAD, which claims its marathon protest that ended early this month had at least reduced Thaksin's influence.

But the PAD was irate after the Democrats appeared to try to distance themselves from the movement as though to manage a fine balance with the pro-Thaksin United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship, which demands the PAD be brought to account over its protests.

Then there is the Newin faction which insists on amending the constitution, a move which could see the PAD return to the streets, although it has explained that any charter rewrite would not benefit the fugitive Thaksin who has a jail sentence hanging over his head from the Ratchadapisek land trial.

Mr Abhisit knows he is in treacherous waters, which explains why he is avoiding any form of confrontation or provocation with the UDD. Instead, he is focusing his priorities on meeting business leaders to thrash out remedies for the economic crisis and reaching out to people who could pacify the deepening social disunity.

The new government will be ill-advised to turn away any ally as it must put a lid on undercurrents of dissatisfaction.

Then it faces the classic hurdle of assembling a government - jockeying and bargaining for posts among the coalition members has too often led to ministers being chosen on a basis other than capability. In the Democrat's case, the list of prospective ministers exceeds 30 with only 15 cabinet seats in the party's quota up for grabs. When negotiations and quotas override capability, the resulting cabinet line-up usually presents the first damaging setback for any government. If Abhisit is unable to put together an impressive cabinet list, it will have to explain to the people its limitations.

The euphoria surrounding Mr Abhisit's rise to the premiership is dissipating. There is no honeymoon period for his new government - and disappointment is simply not an option for Mr Abhisit.