Exclusive: Why Suu Kyi remains caged

By Larry Jagan

"Aung San Suu Kyi is irrelevant," Burma's information minister General Kyaw Hsan says. But if that was the case, the regime would have little to fear from freeing her.

Burma's detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is preparing to start another year under house arrest in her lakeside residence in Rangoon, amid an increasing international outcry against her imprisonment.

The detention order, which the regime uses to keep her confined to her home, has been renewed for a further year. And there is no indication from the junta that they are prepared to release her any time soon.

"I don't see any sign that she will be released," said Win Min, an independent Burmese analyst who lives in Chiang Mai.

"The generals really fear her, and her popularity, and are unlikely to risk provoking public support for her by freeing her. If they were going to free her, they would certainly avoid this time of year," he said.

Coincidentally, May 27, when the current order officially expires, is also the anniversary of the 1990 elections which Aung San Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), convincingly won. The anniversary of the brutal attack on her, which resulted in her current incarceration, occurs three days later.

This will be her fifth year in detention, this time around. For the last three years she has been held in virtual solitary confinement, with only her doctor being allowed to make very occasional visits. The only other person she has seen in that time is the UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari, who was permitted to visit her twice last year, in May and again in November. He told the world that contrary to growing fears about her health, she was physically fine and in good spirits.

Aung San Suu Kyi has been locked up on three separate occasions now, since her initial arrest in 1989. She was first released in 1995. She was arrested again in late 2000 trying to travel out of Rangoon to Mandalay, and then released in May 2002, after international pressure and the negotiating efforts of the then UN special envoy, Razali Ismail.

A year later, the opposition leader was again arrested after pro-government thugs attacked her car and her entourage as she travelled in the north of the country. Many senior members of the opposition believe that the incident at Depayin on May 30, 2003 was, in fact, an assassination attempt which failed. Others believe it was simply a concerted campaign of harassment which got badly out of hand.

The truth may never really be established, but Aung San Suu Kyi's party recently renewed their appeal to the UN human rights council to investigate the incident. Nearly a hundred people were killed or injured in the fray that night.

This charismatic leader, often dubbed the Nelson Mandela of Asia, has spent 12 of the last 18 years in detention. Every year at this time the international community renews its efforts to convince the Burmese military regime that they should free her. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has appealed to the regime to see reason and release Aung San Suu Kyi as soon as possible. The US and the EU have both reiterated their annual appeal to the military regime to immediately free the pro-democracy leader. Even Asean, the regional body of which Burma is a member, has appealed to the generals to end her house arrest.

This year, though, new voices have joined the growing chorus around the world. Fifty-nine former world leaders have signed a letter calling for the Nobel laureate's freedom. "Suu Kyi is not calling for a revolution in Burma, but rather peaceful, non-violent dialogue between the military, the National League for Democracy, and Burma's ethnic groups," they said.

Three former US presidents including Bill Clinton, former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher, two former Indian prime ministers, V P Singh and Chandra Shekar, former Philippine president Fidel Ramos, former South Korean president Kim Dae-Jung, former Indonesian president Abdurrahman Wahid, former Japanese premier Junichiro Koizumi and former prime minister Chuan Leekpai were among those who signed the letter.

The regime continues to insist that Aung San Suu Kyi has no role to play in Burma's political future. "The Lady is popular abroad but no longer has much support within the country," Burma's top military leader General Than Shwe told Mr Gambari last November, according to sources who accompanied the UN envoy.

"Aung San Suu Kyi is irrelevant," Burma's information minister General Kyaw Hsan has frequently told visiting government leaders, foreign politicians and journalists over the last two years.

But if that was the case, the regime would have little to fear from freeing her.

Aung San Suu Kyi remains a potent force in the country, despite the junta's efforts to sideline her.

"I believe she is still very much relevant - the junta obviously does too, or they would let her out," a Rangoon-based diplomat said.

"She is the only person who could pull together a broad array of forces, and the only person who in the long term could broker a deal with the military, which would see the generals able to bow out with the level of security they would need," he said.

At present Burma's road map to democracy - announced by former prime minister General Khin Nyunt in August 2003 - is completely stalled. Under the proposed plan the National Convention would draw up a new constitution, put it to a referendum, and then fresh, free and fair elections would be held to elect a new civilian government.

The National Convention, though, which has been intermittently meeting to draw up the new constitution for more than 14 years, is in a prolonged recess, and unlikely to reconvene before November, according to Burmese government sources.

"So far step one on the road map - drawing up the constitution - has been dragged out, giving the distinct impression that the generals are simply playing for time, with no intention of introducing a genuine multi-party democracy," said Win Min.

The National Convention was originally expected to reconvene this month, but the next session was postponed when the country's top leaders began to have second thoughts about the road map, according to senior military sources in the new capital, Naypidaw.

The invitations to the thousand or so delegates for May 8 were never distributed. They are still sitting in the foreign ministry, according to reliable Burmese government sources in Rangoon.

But in recent months there have been increased rumours in Rangoon that the regime may be about to try to restart talks with Aung San Suu Kyi and her party as they explore ways of reducing the country's international isolation and secure their power.

Gen Than Shwe told a senior visiting Chinese official in February that because he and Aung San Suu Kyi could not talk together they had been communicating by letter, according to a Chinese government official.

But this assertion by the senior general could not be confirmed.

Western diplomats in Rangoon remain extremely sceptical. "There does not seem to be any percentage in it for the junta, since I believe the regime is quite content with where things stand as they are - they have China, Russia and India in their corner, massive amounts of money are about to flow in from gas, and they have the opposition on their knees," said one diplomat.

In fact the evidence is that Burma's military leaders may be about to abandon the road map altogether.

"Nothing is moving on the political front, and the top two generals, Than Shwe and Maung Aye, now fear the road map is really Khin Nyunt's and not necessarily in the interests of the army as a whole," said a Western diplomat who closely follows Burmese affairs from Bangkok.

Certainly the regime has begun to realise that the process of drawing up the new constitution is not without its fair share of problems. Already there is growing friction with the ethnic groups, who have cease-fire agreements with Rangoon and are attending the National Convention.

"We've been told that if we do not agree to the constitution they want, that is with very limited autonomy for the ethnic minorities, they will simply push it through anyway," a representative of the Kachin ethnic group told the Bangkok Post.

As part of preparations for the planned referendum and elections, those cease-fire groups would also be expected to surrender their weapons. Initial attempts recently to get the Kachin and the largest ethnic rebel group, the Wa, to lay down arms were rejected out of hand, according to ethnic sources.

"It's not clear where things are going on the road map now - having pushed it forward with renewed vigour, the regime now appears to have cold feet about moving on to potentially trickier phases," a Western diplomat based in Rangoon said. "They seem paralysed. They are facing a number of important challenges, but lack the will or capacity to do anything about them."

While most observers agree that the road map is currently stalled, some feel that this may be the prelude to a new era of political activity.

"It's all at an impasse as they look for new strategies. Nothing has been decided and I believe all options are still open," the diplomat added. "The regime is now preoccupied with other issues and nothing is likely to happen soon."

General Than Shwe is scheduled to return to Singapore soon for further medical treatment. He is expected to be there for more than two weeks. Until he returns to Burma, there will be no movement on any front - let alone the road map.

But even when the regime decides it's going to move forward, it is unlikely that Aung San Suu Kyi will be released. Most seasoned observers believe she will continue to be detained until after the referendum and even the elections. It is certain, at least, that she will spending all of the next year under house arrest.