Analysis: It all depends on Thaksin

By Veera Prateepchaikul

Ex-premier Thaksin has spoken via video to a Sanam Luang rally, and the outcome of the pro-Thaksin, anti-CNS weekend protest will dictate the state of political tension in the days and weeks ahead.

For starters, the videotaped, 30-minute speech to the rally by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra (at 9pm Thailand time) drew a larger crowd, estimated at well over the 10,000 of last weekend's peak rally numbers.

Apart from those organised to attend by the pro-Thaksin forces, the fact that Thaksin was speaking undoubtedly drew both supporters and opponents, not to mention many curious on-lookers.

The Council for National Security (CNS) was not concerned about a rally that remains at Sanam Luang.

It is, however, extremely concerned about the potential for trouble if the rally moves to the Army headquarters. The CNS has discussed how to deal with a provocative crowd – the pushing and shoving – by using fire trucks and tear gas to disperse the rally. This is not their main concern.

Their greatest fear is how to respond if certain elements try to breach the walls to break into Army HQ, or worse, throw bombs in the area and cause deaths or injuries. The CNS believes that the pro-Thaksin organisers want to provoke the CNS to use force or firearms against unarmed civilians – a situation which would ignite and widen anti-CNS sentiment among the public. The CNS says they know this is a trap.

If the protest turns violent, the CNS wants the government, specifically Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, to declare a state of emergency. If this occurs the CNS plans to detain key rally organisers as well as politicians who they believe are behind the pro-Thaksin and anti-CNS rallies.

Originally, Gen Surayud was reluctant to declare a state of emergency, and has suggested to Gen Sonthi that the Army has the power to declare martial law. However, this afternoon, the prime minister announced that a state of emergency could be declared if tonight’s protest becomes violent.

Certain CNS members have said that they have studied the circumstances surrounding the use of force during the Black May military crackdown on demonstrators in 1992. However, it appears that the CNS has no specific plan of how to deal with a violent protest, apart from a vague order to detain its leaders and politicians – or, as some will inevitably deride it, “round up the usual suspects.”

Whether the rally will escalate will depend on what former PM Thaksin has to say at the rally from 9 pm. With a sizeable portion of his assets frozen, Mr Thaksin could use this opportunity to appease the protesters – thus cooling the political atmosphere. Such a move could help move all parties along to some road of compromise. But there is also the view that “Thaksin will still be Thaksin,” and that his comments will add fuel to already heightened tension.

Although ousted from power and in exile, Mr Thaksin still commands the loyalty of many supporters. He can make a difference, for better or worse vis-?-vis the current political confrontation. It really depends on whether Mr Thaksin cares more about his own position and the interests of his family, or those of the country.